Nerdy Economist’s 4 predictions for movies in 2014!

2014 will  be an awesome year for the box office. Here are some bold predictions for the year of 2014, in regards to movies. Bold Predictions #1- Marvel/Disney will have it’s first flop: Up to this point, Marvel has been nothing both gold for Disney. However, I feel that they may end up running into a speed bump. That speed bump being Guardians of the Galaxy.  Now, a lot of people were surprise when Marvel/Disney announced that they were doing Guardians because they are lesser known characters, especially compared to some that they have sitting on the self. However, Marvel has earned the reputation in the market to roll the dice on this project, and it won’t come up a lucky seven either.  I feel that Guardians of the Galaxy will be the lowest grossing film at the box office  that they have put out to date. They may not even break even at the box office. The production budget will be high, when you consider the all star casts and the massive amount of CGI that will be in this movie, which neither one is cheap.  Now, I am sure in the long run that Disney will break even with the project with various distribution, merchandise, and back end deals such as Blu-ray sales and tv rights to the movie. However, I will be surprise if it does above $250 million worldwide, especially if the movie looks anything like the cut scene of Thor: The Dark World. Bold Prediction #2- Marvel/ Disney will not have the highest grossing comic book movie.  However, just because Disney/Marvel won’t have the highest grossing comic book movie, doesn’t mean that it won’t be a Marvel character. Especially since DC is not having a movie come out this year.  The highest grossing comic book movie, which will be the highest overall grossing comic book movie will be The Amazing Spider-Man 2. Do not underestimate the draw that Spider-Man has. Every Spider-Man movie that has been released has set records and almost tripled their production budget, even the infamous Spider-Man 3. To go along with Spider-Man’s massive power to draw, there are some huge stars in this movie as well, such as Jamie Foxx and Emma Stone. Also, many feel that this movie has had the best trailer so far. Bold Prediction #3 – Godzilla will not do well domestically. Despite the pretty solid trailer, Godzilla won’t do well in the United States, and that shouldn’t be a big surprise. I feel more people in the United States like superheroes not sci-fi monsters, example Pacific Rim. However, despite the subpar( $100-$175 million) take in the United States, it will do good in the global box office especially in the Asian market. Prediction #4 Disney top grossing movie will be a battle.  It’s hard to imagine that Disney top movie might not be a Marvel movie, seeing they have been top Disney movies for the last few years and the enormous popularity they have. However, this year, Disney top movie might be Maleficent, the Sleeping Beauty reimaging starring Angelina Jolie. This movie will tell the story of sleeping beauty from the perspective of the evil Maleficent. The teaser that people have seen has looked amazing, and Marvel doesn’t have a strong slate. However, Captain America will give a great competition for Maleficent for the top spot.  I will be giving the edge to Maleficent.

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