I think it’s safe to say that Universal is killing it this year at the box office, but will it be enough to hold off Disney? Universal has had some bust, such as Ted 2 and Unbroken, but some hits such as Fifty Shades of Grey, Jurassic World, Furious 7, and soon to be released Minions. As it stands right now, Jurassic World is fifth in all time worldwide box office receipts.. Fourth would be another Universal movie that came out this year, Furious 7, so for now those are Universal’s main drivers. However, you can go ahead and add Minions to that list. Minions will easily do $600 million worldwide and I would expect it to pass over $1 billion, with the success that the previous two films has had as well the success that Inside Out is enjoying.
So as it stands right now, Universal is in first place with 25% of the market share, Disney is in second place with 19.7% of the market share. The bad news for Universal is that they have one more major release to go, Minions, however, some may argue Straight Outta Compton but due to its R rating, its audience will be restricted. So why is this bad news? Because Disney has two giants left for the year: Ant Man and Star Wars. The latter needs no explaining. Star Wars will make a lot of money, nobody doubts that, but the problem that comes into play is that, since it’s a late December release, anywhere from 20%-40% of its business will come in the year 2016. Ant Man, on the other hand will have all of its profits in the year 2015, the question is how much? Some people are skeptical on the bankabilty of this movie, but as shown by last year’s out of nowhere hit, Guardians of the Galaxy, the Marvel/Disney brand carries a lot of weight. It’ll be interesting to see how this plays out, but just because Universal has a 5.3% lead at the moment, doesn’t mean that they will hold the lead when January 1, 2016 hits.
In my opinion, I think Disney catches Universal and takes the box office crown. It’s hard to say that now, seeing that Universal already has 2 $1 billion dollar movies and perhaps a third in Minions. However, I think Inside Out will cancel out Minions, and both Star Wars and Ant Man hit the billion dollar mark in the year 2015, giving Disney 3 $1 billion dollar movies, Avengers, Ant Man, and Star wars, and one really high grossing movie in Inside Out. Who do you guys think will be the box office kind of 2015?